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The Elcano Royal Institute is a private entity, independent of both the public administration and the companies that fund it, that was established under the honorary presidency of HRH the Prince of Asturias on 27 December 2001. The Institutes prime mission is to generate ideas on the international scenario and on Spains strategic options in international relations that are of practical use to politicians, the business world, academics the media and public opinion at large.
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Introduction
We resume our monthly Newsletter with our regular Inside Spain section, where this month William Chislett reports, within Foreign Policy, on the visits of two Latin America Presidents: Hugo Chávez, of Venezuela, who announced Spains Repsol and Italys Eni had made a very large-scale offshore natural gas discovery, and Evo Morales, of Bolivia, whose visits main result was an agreement for Spain to write off 60 million of debt. On the Domestic Scene, the latest figures show that the number of immigrants caught entering Spain illegally by boat in the first seven months was 40% lower than in the same period of 2008: an unemployment rate of 18% and the patrolling of the African coast by Frontex are discouraging illegal immigration. An account of Judge Garzóns appearance before the Supreme Court accused by a right-wing group of exceeding his official remit by seeking to investigate crimes against humanity during the rule of General Franco is also included. And finally, the Economy: the need to bring down the budget deficit to the 3% deficit limit set by the EU is forcing the government to raise taxes; also, faced with the EUs highest jobless rate, it agreed to grant a monthly subsidy of 420 to those whose unemployment benefits ran out as of 1 January and whose income from other sources is less than 75% of the official minimum wage. On a brighter note, Spain received a record US$65.5 billion of inward investment in 2008, more than double that in 2007 and the sixth-highest in the world, while its outward investment amounted to US$77.3 billion, the eighth largest. Our companies are also active: Telefónica and China Unicom entered into a cooperation and share-swap agreement, BBVA acquired the distressed Texan bank Guaranty Financial and Santander plans to sell 16% of its bank in Brazil and use the proceeds of as much as US$5.6 billion to expand its network of branches and ATMs in Latin Americas largest market, while Banco Sabadell bought its second bank in Florida, Mellon United National Bank.
The highlights of our 59th Newsletter include an analysis by Fredrik Langdal outlining the six prioritised areas of the Swedish EU Presidency during the second half of 2009 and reviewing the key challenges ahead, as part of our Europe section, which also offers our readers a comment by William Chislett on the recent report issued by the EUs Independent Commission on Turkey. The second highlight this month, by Pankaj Vashisht and Sriparna Pathak, is part of the series of reviews on how the global crisis is affecting different countries, on this occasion India, with the focus on the implications for the developing world. And finally, the last highlight is an ARI by our contributor Frank Gregory, who evaluates the expanded version of the UKs counter-terrorism strategy, CONTEST based around the four CT objectives of Pursue, Prevent, Protect and Prepare which was published in March 2009. Within Public Opinion we present the last results of our quarterly Survey BRIE, focused in the 20th edition on Spain-US relations, the EU and the future Spanish Presidency. The G-8 and Spains influence in the world are issues of the 21st edition. And lastly, within our Security and Defence area, the analyst Lucia Marta writes about Italys participation in UN missions abroad.
Those readers who do not wish to continue receiving both our English-language Newsletter and our Spanish-language Boletín should inform us at
http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/boletinsubs_eng_new.asp of their preference for one or the other version
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Inside Spain
by William Chislett |
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Analysis: BRIE |
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20th and 21st Waves of the Barometer of the Elcano Royal Institute
The Elcano Royal Institute presents in this issue the 20th and 21st Waves of the BRIE -a survey carried out three times a year of a sample of 1,200 people considered a fair cross-section of the Spanish population. The 20th edition is focused on: Spain U.S relations, EU and the Spanish Presidency, immigration, NATO and Afghanistan. The G-8 and Spains influence in the world, Iraq, the European Union and the financial crisis were the issues of the 21st edition.
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Analysis: Europe |
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The Priorities of the Swedish EU Presidency (ARI)
Fredrik Langdal
This ARI outlines the six priority areas of the Swedish EU Presidency during the second half of 2009 and looks at its key challenges.
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The Independent Commissions Report on Turkey: Call to Break the Vicious Circle (ARI)
William Chislett
The Independent Commission on Turkey boldly defends Turkeys ailing bid to join the EU and rebuffs the stiff opposition to its full membership from the French President Nicolas Sarkozy and some other EU leaders.
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Document of Interest
Transatlantic Trends. Key Findings 2009
The 2009 edition highlights that Europeans widely support U.S. President Barack Obamas handling of international affairs, though the proportion is much higher in Western than in Central and Eastern Europe. Also, Obamas personal popularity has not bridged the serious transatlantic differences over Afghanistan, Iran and climate change.
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Document of Interest
Insight Turkey – The Alliance of Civilizations: A Spanish View
Article by Máximo Cajal, former Special Representative of the Spanish Prime Minister in charge of the Alliance of Civilizations, in the 11th volume of Insight Turkey, a quarterly journal published by SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research.
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Analysis: Latin America |
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Relations between the EU and Latin America: Abandoning Regionalism in Favour of a New Bilateral Strategy? (WP)
Celestino del Arenal
Over the past three decades, Latin America has undergone a major process of diversification in its international relations, making it easier for the countries of the region to develop foreign policies that are more autonomous and more focused on the challenges posed by an international society that is increasingly interdependent and global.
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Document of Interest
ECLAC – Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy 2008 – 2009. Crisis and opportunities for regional cooperation
This annual publication analyses the global economic crisis and its impact in the trade of Latin America and the Caribbean.
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Analysis: Security & Defence |
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The UNIFIL II Mission in Lebanon: Italys Contribution (ARI)
Lucía Marta
Italy has contributed to the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) since 1979 and is the first contributor to UNIFIL II since 2006.
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Document of Interest
Commander NATO International Security Assistance Force (Afghanistan) – COMISAFs Initial Assessment
This report of Stanley A. McChrystal -General of the U.S Army and Commander NATO International Security Assistance Force (Afghanistan)- to the U.S Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates is an assessment of the overall situation, plans and ongoing efforts. It sought to answer three main questions: Can ISAF achieve the mission? If so, how should ISAF go about achieving the mission? What is required to achieve the mission?
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Document of Interest
The White House – A Phased, Adaptive Approach for Missile Defence in Europe
According to the White House, this approach is based on an assessment of the Iranian missile threat, and a commitment to deploy technology that is proven, cost-effective, and adaptable to an evolving security environment.
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Analysis: International Economy & Trade |
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The Global Economic Crisis and India: An Analysis (ARI)
Pankaj Vashisht and Sriparna Pathak
The unfolding global financial crisis comes in various forms and presents many challenges as well as opportunities, even though it is too early to predict any specific outcome. However, the fact remains that the international system and the concept of power as such is undergoing a shift. This has serious implications for the developing world. The financial crisis presents India in particular with several geopolitical implications.
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Document of Interest
UNCTAD – World Investment Report 2009
The 19th annual report on the latest trends in foreign direct investment (FDI) and the transnational corporations (TNCs), analyses the ways the FDI flows reacted to the current financial and economic crisis and the TNCs and traditional investors affect agriculture in many developing countries.
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Analysis: International Terrorism |
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CONTEST (2009): An Evaluation of Revisions to the UK Counter-Terrorism Strategy with a Special Focus on the CBRNE Threat (ARI)
Frank Gregory
A much expanded version of the UKs counter-terrorism strategy, CONTEST (based around the four CT objectives of: Pursue, Prevent, Protect and Prepare), was published in March 2009.
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Document of Interest
CRS – United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan: Background and Policy Issues
This publication of the Congressional Research Service (CRS) examines the central role of UNAMA in Afghanistan and discusses the obstacles the organization faces in coordinating international efforts.
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