Apreciados compañeros, 

Durante los meses de Septiembre y Octubre hemos tenido la suerte de contar con Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, Director del REAL y Profesor en la Universidad de Illinois, cómo profesor invitado en nuestro grupo de investigación. Esta semana también nos visitará Ana Gómez Loscos, Economista del Banco de España y especialista en ciclos económicos.

Aprovechando la coincidencia de ambos en nuestro grupo de investigación realizaremos un seminario conjunto sobre los efectos intra-metropolitanos de los ciclos económicos al que os invitamos. Este seminario ee celebrara el próximo Miércoles 26 de Octubre a las 12:30 horas en la Sala Klein del Departamento de Economía Aplicada.

Al final de este correo se adjunta la información sobre los trabajos que se presentaran en este seminario conjunto que se realizara en inglés.

Un afectuoso saludo

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Special REGIOlab seminar Regional business cycles and intra-metropolitan effects 

 

Ponente: Prof. Dr. Geoffrey J.D. Hewings

Geoffrey J.D. Hewings es profesor emérito en la Universidad de Illinois. Director y fundador del Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL). Es uno de los investigadores de mayor prestigio internacional con más de 200 publicaciones científicas de alto impacto. Una biografía mas amplia puede obtenerse en este enlace: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geoffrey_J._D._Hewings

Título: Does Industry Mix Matter in Regional Business Cycles?

This paper tackles two issues: (1) lead and lag relationship among regions and the role of the industry mix effect to this phenomenon are explored; (2) concurrent and lagged effects of the industry mix on the regional economic fluctuations are measured explicitly with the national shock identified from the principal components method. The empirical analysis focuses on five Midwest states. The findings reveal that, the business cycles of Michigan, Ohio, Indiana and Wisconsin coincide with the national cycle while the cycle of Illinois lags the national cycle by 3 to 4 months. This phenomenon turns out to be generated from the differences in industry structure since the manufacturing sector reacts promptly to the national shock while the services sector respond in a few months. As a result, relatively service-oriented Illinois lags other neighboring states. Analysis reveals that the industry mix effects explain more than 60 percent of the variance of the state coincident index and around 40 percent of the variation of state total non-farm employment. In addition, the simulation of VAR model demonstrates that the transmission mechanism and autoregressive property of economic activity expand the time differences in the business cycles among regions caused by the industry mix effects.

 

Ponente: Dra. Ana Gómez Loscos

Ana Gómez Loscos es doctora en Economía Aplicada por la Universidad de Zaragoza e investigadora-economista del Banco de España. Responsable de los análisis coyunturales y regionales del Banco de España. Su investigación está centrada en el estudio de los ciclos económicos y el análisis de sus diferentes impactos regionales. Sobre este tema es autora de varias publicaciones científicas de alto impacto. También ha colaborado en varios trabajos con investigadores de REGIOlab estudiando el efecto de las economías de aglomeración en la evolución económica regional y local.

Título: Regional Business Cycles Across Europe

Large contractionary shocks such as the Great Recession or the sovereign debt crisis in Europe have rekindled interest in analyzing the overall patterns of business cycles. We study these patterns for Europe both at the national and the regional level. We first examine business cycles' movements and then, using Finite Mixture Markov Models, we obtain a dating of the different business cycles and identify clusters among them. We also propose an index to analyze within-country homogeneity. Our main findings are the following: (i) we _nd evidence of just one cluster amongst the European countries while, at the regional level, there is more heterogeneity and we identify different groups of European regions; (ii) the groups are characterized as follows: the first contains most of the Greek regions; groups two and three include, in most cases, regions from Germany (plus a couple of regions from southern European countries in group two and some regions of the core countries in group three); group four is populated mainly by regions belonging to northern European countries; and group five is the largest and is composed of the rest of European regions; (iii) we notice that the degree of homogeneity of regional business cycles within countries is quite different; (iv) we also observe that spatial correlation increased during the convergence process towards the introduction of the euro and has taken a big leap with the Great Recession, both at country and regional level. In fact, movements among regions have mainly increased during the last decade. These results have important implications for policymakers in the design of convergence policies at the European level and also in the design of fiscal policies to reduce regional disparities at the country level.

 

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REGIOlab 

Laboratorio de Análisis Económico Regional, Universidad de Oviedo

http://www.uniovi.net/regiolab